2009 Grammy predictions

Last year I posted full Grammy predictions and odds in 19 categories, and nailed the winner in 13 of them. I was the only pundit to correctly predict that Amy Winehouse would win 5 awards. But now I don't have the energy for all that. If the Grammys aren't going to take the time to create a quality control panel with people who know what they're doing, I'm not going to spend hours analyzing their picks.

This year, I'm just going to list the predicted winners in several categories. Check back here on Sunday night when I'll be live blogging the event!

ALBUM OF THE YEAR:
Raising Sand, Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
Alison never loses at the Grammys, and with Plant on her side, this one seems like a pretty safe bet. Coldplay has a shot as well. Some people are actually calling Lil Wayne the favorite for this award, but they must be smoking something.

RECORD OF THE YEAR:
Viva La Vida, Coldplay
This is one where Plant & Krauss may lose, because their nominated song Please Read the Letter isn't very well-known. Coldplay has won this award before (remember when "Clocks" beat four hip hop songs in a controversial decision?) They'll triumph here again.

SONG OF THE YEAR:
Viva La Vida, Coldplay
This may be a category where the Grammys get to honor a new female artist they enjoy (Adele), but I'm going to play the favorites and say Coldplay.

BEST NEW ARTIST: Duffy
Duffy or Adele? I've never heard a single Adele song, so I have to go with the chanteuse I'm familiar with. I'm rooting for the Jonas Brothers, though, just so people will be outraged and trash the Grammys again.


FEMALE POP VOCAL: Bleeding Love, Leona Lewis
Tough call here. I'm guessing that Adele and Duffy will cancel each other out, leaving this battle between Leona Lewis and Katy Perry's I Kissed a Girl. It would be cool to see Perry win, but I think Lewis reminds academy voters of one of their favorites, Mariah Carey, so Bleeding Love wins here.

MALE POP VOCAL: Say, John Mayer
Snooze. John Mayer always wins this one. Paul McCartney could get a win here due to old-man sympathy. The dark horse is Jason Mraz's I'm Yours.

GROUP POP VOCAL: Viva La Vida, Coldplay
This one is obvious.

POP COLLABORATION: Rich Woman, Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
Another easy choice. Plant & Krauss triumph over Madonna & Timberlake.


POP VOCAL ALBUM: Detours, Sheryl Crow
Just because Sheryl is a Grammy whore.

DANCE RECORDING: Disturbia, Rihanna
I'm uneasy picking against Madonna in the dance field, but Rihanna was everywhere in 2008, so the guess is she outguns a strong field that also includes Lady Gaga, Hot Chip, and Daft Punk.

GROUP ROCK PERFORMANCE: Long Road Out of Eden, The Eagles
Coldplay and Radiohead are going head to head, along with veterans the Eagles and AC/DC, and the buzz band of the moment, Kings of Leon. I'm really taking a wild guess at this one.

BEST ROCK SONG: Violet Hill, Coldplay
Another category where it's Coldplay vs. Radiohead. Either could win and it wouldn't be a surprise. Bruce Springsteen has a shot too, for Girls in their Summer Clothes.


BEST ROCK ALBUM: Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends, Coldplay
The only competition for Coldplay comes from the Raconteurs.

ALTERNATIVE ALBUM: In Rainbows, Radiohead
This is where Radiohead gets one, unless Grammy favorite Beck pulls the upset.

CONTEMPORARY R&B ALBUM: Year of the Gentleman, Ne-Yo
Ne-Yo wins against a weak field. Mary J. Blige provides the only real challenger.

RAP SOLO: A Milli, Lil Wayne
It's Wayne's world, we just live in it.

RAP GROUP: Swagga Like Us, Jay-Z, T.I., Lil Wayne & Kanye West
Who could vote against this mega-collaboration?

RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION: American Boy, Estelle featuring Kanye West
I liked this song for about ten minutes, then it got old.


RAP ALBUM: Tha Carter III, Lil Wayne
Good thing for Weezy that Kanye's album wasn't eligible this year.

COUNTRY ALBUM: Heaven, Heartache, and the Power of Love, Trisha Yearwood
Lamest group of nominees ever. Randy Travis? George Strait? Patty Loveless? What year is this, 1987?

CONTEMPORARY FOLK ALBUM: Raising Sand, Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
I need at least one slam dunk to boost my winning percentage.

BEST COMEDY ALBUM: For Your Consideration, Kathy Griffin
This is the award I'm most looking forward to. Will Kathy Griffin realize her dream of winning a Grammy, to go with her two Emmys? The odds are against her, since George Carlin is the sentimental favorite, but Kathy's on an awards show winning streak, so I'm not betting against her.

BEST MUSIC VIDEO: House of Cards, Radiohead
The futuristic 3D/laser scanning technology will be rewarded here with a Grammy.

2009 Grammy nominee reaction

The 2009 Grammy nominees have been announced, and while I could spend plenty of time bashing the selections, let's instead look at what the Academy got right this time.

M.I.A. Though it should've been nominated last year, MIA's "Paper Planes" takes a rightful place in the Record of the Year category. Since the rest of the nominees in that field are crap, I'll be pulling hard for her to win.



Radiohead. Though I still maintain In Rainbows is their weakest effort since the '90s, Radiohead scored five nominations (seven, if you want to count Best Boxed Set Package & Producer of the Year). They usually appear in only the Best Alternative category, so seeing them in Album of the Year and Best Rock Song is quite refreshing.

Lil Wayne. Wayne is clearly the Artist of the Year, so his 8 nominations are deserved.

Jason Mraz. The Academy played a cruel joke on him in 2004, when it asked him to be one of the artists who announced the nominations, which usually means that he's going to get nominated himself (he didn't). So it paid him overdue respect with a Song of the Year nod for "I'm Yours," the year's best chilled-out rock song.



Kathy Griffin. Her campaign to get a Grammy nomination worked! She's up for Best Comedy Album, and she has a pretty good shot at winning, though George Carlin has to be considered the odds on favorite right now.

Rufus Wainwright. Another one to place in the "overdue recognition" category. I didn't even hear his album of Judy Garland songs, but he deserves the nomination because he's Rufus Wainwright.



Robyn. The Swedish dance artist returned to the scene in a big way and snagged a Best Dance Album nod, beating out Madonna. Konichiwa, bitches!

The Jonas Brothers. Why the hell not? They add some star power to the Best New Artist field. It would be embarrassing if they won, but don't worry, they won't - Duffy is all over that shit.

Slipknot. I love when Slipknot gets nominated, just because seeing them on the red carpet is hilarious.



Stephen Colbert. He's nominated against Sidney Poitier in the Best Spoken Word category, for I Am America (And So Can You!) Maybe he'll win this time, since his award show nemesis Jon Stewart (and Barry Manilow) aren't in the same category.

Alison Krauss & Robert Plant. Alison gets way too many Grammys - she's already won more than any female artist in history, and she'll likely add at least 3 or 4 more to her total. But Raising Sand was a very good album.

Weezer. They get no Grammy respect, I tell ya. But at least they snuck into the Best Music Video field, for "Pork N Beans." Maybe it was the Chris Crocker cameo that sealed the deal?

The full list of nominees in all 110 categories can be found here.